The narrative surrounding Donald Trump, MBS, and the alleged "near-miss" assassination order for Ali Khamenei isn't just news. It is a masterclass in controlled leaks designed to distract you from the actual mechanics of Middle Eastern power. Most media outlets are busy recycling the same tired script: a reluctant President, a bloodthirsty Crown Prince, and a sudden change of heart.
It makes for a great thriller. It’s also complete nonsense.
The idea that a single conversation with Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) could flip the switch on a strike against the Supreme Leader of Iran ignores how the United States military apparatus actually functions. No president—not even one as prone to instinct as Trump—orders the decapitation of a nuclear-adjacent sovereign state based on a afternoon chat without a pre-baked "Targeting Folder" already sitting on the Resolute Desk.
The Myth of the Reluctant Warrior
The competitor's take suggests Trump "didn't want" to kill Khamenei until MBS whispered the right magic words. This frames geopolitical strategy as a high-school drama. In reality, the "Maximum Pressure" campaign was never about individual personalities. It was about the cold, hard math of regional hegemony.
If you believe the Saudi Crown Prince is the one pulling the strings of the Pentagon, you don’t understand the leverage dynamic. The U.S. doesn't take orders from Riyadh; it manages Riyadh's expectations to ensure the global oil market doesn't face a $150-per-barrel cardiac arrest. The "order" to strike is often a diplomatic tool used to keep allies in line, not a precursor to actual kinetic action.
Assassinating a head of state like Khamenei isn't a tactical strike; it's an invitation to a fifty-year war. Every analyst worth their salt knows the U.S. military-industrial complex prefers "forever wars" over "instant collapses." An instant collapse of the Iranian regime creates a power vacuum that nobody—including the Saudis—is actually prepared to fill.
Why MBS Benefits from the Rumor (Not the Act)
Think about the incentive structure. MBS doesn't actually want Khamenei dead today. He wants the threat of Khamenei's death to remain a permanent fixture of U.S. foreign policy.
- Defense Subsidies: As long as Iran is a "Great Satan" in the eyes of Washington, the arms deals keep flowing.
- Regional Shield: The moment the Iranian threat vanishes, the U.S. starts asking uncomfortable questions about Saudi human rights records and domestic reforms.
- Oil Premia: Geopolitical tension adds a "risk premium" to every barrel of crude sold.
I’ve spent years watching these backroom deals. The "leaked" story about MBS convincing Trump is a calculated PR move. It makes MBS look like a kingmaker and Trump look like a decisive strongman. It’s a win-win for their respective brands, even if the "assassination order" was never more than a scribble on a legal pad.
The Intellectual Laziness of "Proximity to Power"
The media loves to ask: "What did they say to each other?"
The better question is: "What did the intelligence briefings actually show?"
Assassinating Khamenei would trigger the "Sampson Option" for Iran’s proxy network. Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various militias in Iraq would turn the entire region into a charred remains of infrastructure within 72 hours. No amount of Saudi persuasion changes that tactical reality.
When people ask if Trump was "ready" to do it, they are falling for the "Strongman Fallacy." Governments are massive, slow-moving bureaucracies. Even the Commander-in-Chief can’t simply bypass the Joint Chiefs of Staff for a hit on a top-tier global leader without a massive paper trail and a pre-positioned carrier strike group.
The "Red Line" is a Mirage
We’ve been told for decades that there are "red lines."
- "If they enrich to 20%, we strike."
- "If they attack a tanker, we strike."
- "If they target a General, we strike."
We saw what happened with Qasem Soleimani. That was a calculated risk because Soleimani was a combatant in a theater of war (Iraq). Khamenei is a sovereign religious and political figurehead. Removing him is a different category of escalation—one that results in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
If the Strait of Hormuz closes, the global economy ends. Period.
Do you really think a billionaire real estate mogul—whose entire brand is built on "The Art of the Deal" and a booming stock market—would risk a global Great Depression because a Saudi Prince gave him a pep talk?
Stop Asking if He "Almost" Did It
The question is a distraction. The real story isn't the assassination that didn't happen; it's the massive shift in how the U.S. uses the threat of violence as a commodity.
By leaking these stories, the administration achieved three things without firing a single shot:
- It terrified the Iranian leadership into internal purges.
- It signaled to the GOP base that Trump is "tougher" than his predecessors.
- It gave the Saudi monarchy a sense of relevancy they haven't felt since the 1970s.
This isn't military strategy. It's marketing.
The Cost of the "Almost" Narrative
The downside to this contrarian view? It’s boring. It requires you to look at logistics, supply chains, and international law instead of "secret meetings" and "daring orders."
But the "almost assassinated" trope is dangerous. It prepares the public for the idea that these massive, world-altering decisions are made on a whim. They aren't. They are the result of thousands of hours of simulation, risk-modeling, and economic forecasting.
If you want to understand the Middle East, stop reading the transcripts of what leaders say to each other. Start looking at where the money is moving.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are currently in a dance of "Managed Conflict." They need each other as enemies to justify their internal grip on power. A dead Khamenei ruins the choreography.
The next time you see a headline about a "secret order" or a "narrowly avoided war," ask yourself: Who benefits from me believing this was a close call?
Usually, it’s the person who didn't have the nerve to do it in the first place, and the person who was never actually at risk.
The theater of war has moved from the battlefield to the press release. Don't be the audience member who thinks the stage blood is real.
Stop looking for the smoking gun and start looking at the person selling the gunpowder.
