Jon Ossoff has a $31 million head start, and Georgia Republicans are currently too busy fighting each other to do much about it. If you're looking for a clear frontrunner to take back this seat in 2026, you won't find one today. Instead, the state is hurtling toward a messy primary that looks less like a strategic campaign and more like a demolition derby.
The math for the GOP should be easy. Donald Trump won Georgia in 2024 with 51% of the vote. On paper, that makes Ossoff one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country. But as voters head to the polls for the May 19 primary, the Republican field is a fractured collection of MAGA loyalists and establishment outsiders, none of whom have managed to clear the 50% hurdle needed to avoid a June runoff.
The Republican primary is a three way collision
The race has boiled down to three main players, each representing a different soul of the modern Georgia GOP. You've got Rep. Mike Collins, Rep. Buddy Carter, and the wildcard, former football coach Derek Dooley.
Mike Collins has the momentum right now. He’s positioned himself as the ultimate Trump ally, leaning heavily on his work in Congress and his "America First" credentials. Polling from mid-May shows him leading the pack with about 32% of the vote. That’s a decent lead, but it’s nowhere near the majority he needs to win outright.
Buddy Carter is the veteran in the room. He’s been in the House since 2015 and has the name ID that comes with it. He’s hovering around 21% in recent InsiderAdvantage polls. He’s trying to play the same MAGA tunes as Collins, but he’s also fighting off attacks regarding his long tenure in Washington.
Then there’s Derek Dooley. He’s the hand-picked candidate of Governor Brian Kemp. Since Kemp passed on running for the Senate himself, he’s poured his political capital into Dooley. It’s an interesting play. Kemp is arguably the most popular Republican in the state, but his endorsement hasn't been enough to catapult Dooley past the congressmen yet. Dooley is sitting at 26%, which puts him right in the mix for a runoff spot.
Why the lack of a Trump endorsement matters
In a typical red-state primary, a Trump endorsement is the end of the conversation. In Georgia, it’s a glaring void. Trump hasn't picked a horse in this race, and that's left the candidates in a weird sort of limbo. They’re all tripping over themselves to prove they’re the "most Trump-y," but without the official blessing, none of them can consolidate the base.
This silence from Mar-a-Lago is likely a byproduct of the lingering friction between Trump and the Georgia state leadership. Remember, this is the state where Trump famously clashed with Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger over the 2020 results. While they've played nice for the cameras lately, the scars are still there. By staying out of the Senate primary, Trump is effectively letting the Kemp-backed Dooley and the MAGA-aligned Collins battle it out until only one is left standing.
Jon Ossoff is sitting on a mountain of cash
While Republicans are spending millions attacking each other over ethics complaints and "RINO" labels, Jon Ossoff is just watching. He doesn't have a serious primary opponent. He’s spent the last year doing what he does best: raising money.
Ossoff brought in over $14 million in just the first quarter of 2026. He’s entering the heat of the cycle with more than $31 million in the bank. For a Republican challenger to catch up after a bruising June runoff, they’ll need a miracle or a massive infusion of national cash.
It isn't just about the money, though. Ossoff has spent his first term building a brand as a pragmatic, constituent-focused senator. He talks about solar manufacturing, rural broadband, and infrastructure. He’s making it hard for Republicans to paint him as a "radical liberal" when he’s busy cutting ribbons on new factory floors in deep-red counties.
The independent voter problem
Emerson College polling from March shows Ossoff leading the potential GOP field by an average of 5 to 8 points. His secret weapon? Independent voters. He’s currently holding a double-digit lead with that group.
Republicans know that to win Georgia, they don't just need the base; they need the suburban voters in North Atlanta who abandoned the party during the Trump era. If the GOP nominee comes out of the runoff smelling like a fringe firebrand, those suburbanites might just stick with Ossoff.
What happens if this goes to a runoff
Georgia law is a headache for political strategists. If no one hits 50% on Tuesday, the top two finishers head to a runoff on June 16. That’s another month of negative ads, another month of drained bank accounts, and another month for Ossoff to run unopposed on the airwaves.
A runoff between Collins and Dooley would be a proxy war between the Trump and Kemp wings of the party. That’s exactly what national Republicans wanted to avoid. They wanted a unified front to take on a well-funded incumbent. Instead, they’re getting a family feud.
If you're a Republican voter in Georgia, the next few weeks are about more than just picking a name. You're deciding which version of the party has a better shot at unseating a guy who hasn't lost a statewide runoff yet.
Check your local polling station and make sure you're ready for the June 16 date, because the way things are looking, the May primary is only the beginning of a very long summer. Keep an eye on the turnout numbers in the Atlanta suburbs; that’s where this race will eventually be won or lost in November.
