Gavin Newsom isn't exactly known for being a political rebel. He's the guy who usually waits for the wind to blow before he starts leaning, but something changed on Tuesday night in Los Angeles. While promoting his new memoir, Young Man in a Hurry, the California Governor did something that would have been a career-ender for a Democrat just a few years ago. He looked at the current state of Israel, pointed at the "apartheid" label, and basically said the shoe fits.
If you're wondering why this matters, look at the calendar. It's March 2026. Donald Trump is back in the White House, the U.S. and Israel just finished a massive strike on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Newsom is clearly measuring the drapes for a 2028 presidential run. His comments aren't just a "hot take." They're a massive signal that the old-school, unconditional support for Israel within the Democratic party is dead.
The apartheid label and the break with Bibi
Newsom didn't just stumble into this. During an interview with Pod Save America's Jon Favreau, he cited New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman to back up his point. He argued that under Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership—or "Bibi," as he's known—the situation in the West Bank and the push for annexation has reached a point where calling it an "apartheid state" is no longer a radical fringe opinion. It's a description of reality.
"It breaks my heart," Newsom said, "but the current leadership in Israel is walking us down that path where I don't think you have a choice but to have that consideration."
What "consideration" is he talking about? Military aid. For the first time, a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination is saying out loud that U.S. weapons and cash shouldn't be a blank check. Newsom is trying to draw a line between loving the idea of Israel and hating the actual policies of its current government. He’s making it okay for Democrats to be pro-Israel but anti-Netanyahu, which is a tightrope walk he thinks he can win.
Trump and the war on Iran
The timing of these comments is everything. The Middle East is a powderkeg right now. Just last Saturday, a joint U.S.-Israeli offensive hit Iran hard, killing Khamenei and hundreds of others. Trump is calling it a victory for "peace," but Newsom is calling it "illegal and dangerous."
Newsom's logic is pretty simple: why are we starting a new war in Iran when Israel hasn't even "solved the Hamas question" after two years of fighting? He’s tapping into a huge vein of frustration among American voters who are tired of seeing billions of dollars fly overseas while "affordability is at crisis levels" at home. He literally asked why we're cutting food stamps and healthcare to fund a war that Congress never even approved.
It’s a populist angle that sounds a lot more like 2016 Bernie Sanders than 2021 Gavin Newsom. But look at the polls—he’s just following the data. A recent Gallup poll shows that for the first time in 25 years, more Americans sympathize with Palestinians (41%) than with Israelis (36%). Among Democrats, that gap is a chasm: 65% side with Palestinians. Newsom isn't leading a revolution; he's catching up to his base.
The AIPAC factor and 2028
You can't talk about Newsom's shift without talking about the money. Newsom has been very vocal lately about the fact that he's never taken a dime from AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee). He’s framing this as a point of pride, grouping AIPAC in with "tobacco money" and "oil money."
This is a direct shot at the Democratic establishment. For decades, AIPAC was the gatekeeper. If you wanted to run for President, you went to their conference and promised undying loyalty. Newsom is betting that the gate is now wide open. By distancing himself from these lobbying groups, he's positioning himself as the "unbought" candidate for the 2028 primaries.
Why this shift is permanent
People like to say Newsom is just a "weather vane," but even weather vanes tell you which way the storm is coming. The reality is that the U.S.-Israel relationship is fundamentally changing. The images coming out of the recent strikes in Iran—including reports of a hit on a girls' school—are making it impossible for Democrats to maintain the "no daylight" policy of the past.
Newsom is betting that the future of his party lies in a more skeptical, "America-first" (from the left) foreign policy. He’s tired of the "grift and corruption" he sees in the regional proxy wars. He’s betting that you’re tired of it too.
If you want to understand where the 2028 election is going, stop looking at the polls and start looking at what Newsom is willing to say out loud. He just called a major U.S. ally an apartheid state while that ally is in the middle of a hot war. That’s not a gaffe. That’s a platform.
Keep an eye on the War Powers Resolution votes coming up in the Senate. If other top Democrats like Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer start echoing Newsom’s "apartheid" language, the old guard of the party has officially lost control of the narrative. You should expect Newsom to keep doubling down on this "Bibi vs. Israel" distinction as he moves closer to a formal campaign announcement.
